The world is in trouble. We don’t need to look any further than the latest report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which UN Secretary-General António Guterres called a “red code for humanity. “.

The IPCC report is just one of the more recent warnings. In 1972, a landmark book called Limits to Growth sounded the alarm bells. He said that population growth and waste beyond planetary borders will lead to an irreversible decline in human well-being and, ultimately, the collapse of the world system in the 21st century. The book predicted that the point of no return would be 2050. Other research has indicated that this point could happen as early as 2030, or perhaps later than originally predicted, but still within this century.

Either way, the need for change is urgent. The amount of loss and damage the world takes depends on its vulnerabilities.

Small Island Developing States: Measuring Vulnerability

While the future of the world is uncertain, the future of Small Island Developing States (SIDS) is uncertain. Over 72 million people living in 58 SIDS and territories are at aggravated risk with limited solutions under ever-deteriorating circumstances.

Despite being responsible for only 0.2% of global carbon emissions (2016), SIDS suffer the most from the impact of climate change. With the lowest manufacturing output in the world (less than 9% of GDP), their carbon footprint is minor.

For years, SIDS have pushed to create an index to measure their vulnerability and thus advocate for their sustainable development.

At the Earth Summit in 1992, SIDS were first recognized as a distinct group of developing countries facing particular social, economic and environmental vulnerabilities. Two years later, at the first global conference on the sustainable development of SIDS, participating states requested an index to measure their vulnerabilities. The call was renewed in major statements at the 2014 and 2019 SIDS summits. And in December 2020, GA resolution 75/215 called on the UN Secretary-General to report to the 76th General Assembly. on development and the use of a Multidimensional Vulnerability Index (IVM) for SIDS to access concessional finance.

Finally, an index: the multidimensional vulnerability index of SIDS

The call for a sophisticated index has now been answered.

United Nations Resident Coordinators in the Pacific, Caribbean, Atlantic Ocean, Indian Ocean and South China Sea (AIS) SIDS have partnered and partnered with Professor Jeffrey Sachs and the Network sustainable development solutions to develop the MVI. In July 2021, they released a study titled “The Decade of Action and Small Island Developing States – Measuring and Addressing SIDS Vulnerabilities to Accelerate Progress on the SDGs”.

The MVI measures economic development, structural and environmental vulnerabilities through 18 indicators in three different categories.

• Economic vulnerabilities: Seven indicators measuring exposure to unforeseen exogenous shocks resulting from economic openness as well as dependence on a narrow range of strategic exports and imports such as food and fuel. A country’s exposure to declines in economic resources from abroad is measured by dependence on remittances, tourism revenues and official development assistance (ODA).
• Structural development: the boundaries include five indicators of geophysical vulnerability as follows: population size as a measure of the physical size of a country, percentage of arable land, total internal renewable freshwater resources per capita, connectivity shipping and transportation costs. The farther away a country is and the less connected it is to global maritime networks, the higher the costs of transport and trade.
• Environmental vulnerability: Six factors defining vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. The frequency and severity of disasters are taken into account. A distinction is made between hydrometeorological disasters (drought, flooding, storms and extreme temperatures) and seismic disasters (earthquakes and volcanic activity). As an indicator of vulnerability to sea level rise, the percentage of land areas where the elevation is less than 5 meters is included.

The selection of variables allows comparisons to be made between 195 countries and territories. The results show that, without a doubt, SIDS are the most vulnerable nations of our time.

Consider the numbers. The higher the “score” or number on the MVI, the more vulnerable the country is. The overall MVI score is 22.1. Scores for SIDS are 50-70% higher: 37.6 for SIDS in the Pacific, 34.80 in AIS and 33.72 in the Caribbean.

Unsurprisingly, the higher the MVI score, the slower progress on the SDGs. The growth limits for SIDS are much stricter than for the rest of the world.

Using the MVI

Developing the MVI is not an end in itself. The MVI can also be used, among other things, for access to concessional finance, better national planning, debt servicing, access to financing instruments and to insurance and compensation schemes. Using MVI in debt restructuring, including suspension of debt service, debt relief and debt swaps, could significantly improve the fiscal capacity and creditworthiness of SIDS.

Importantly, the MVI could help improve the use of ODA. While SIDS continue to receive higher levels of development assistance per capita, the cost of delivery is nearly five times higher than anywhere else, according to an OECD report from 2018. And a report from March 2021 International Monetary Fund concludes that given the high cost of building sustainable infrastructure in these countries, SIDS cannot fund the SDGs on their own.

The slow progress made by SIDS on the SDGs to date, as the SDG index shows, is an indication that losses from vulnerabilities outweigh development gains.

To achieve consensus around access to IVM-based development cooperation for SIDS, the UN Secretary-General, in his report to the 76th UN General Assembly, recommends the creation of a high-level expert group tasked with finalizing the IVM by 2022.

Through these and other measures, the Multidimensional Vulnerability Index will help people in small island developing States not be left behind.

* Written by ** Simona Marinescu, Ph.D. United Nations Resident Coordinator for Samoa, Cook Islands, Niue, Tokelau. Editorial support from Paul VanDeCarr, Development Coordination Office. To learn more about the work being undertaken in the region, visit: https://samoa.un.org/. *

* To learn more about the reinvigorated United Nations Resident Coordinator system, please see the dedicated section of the UNSDG President’s latest report on DCO. *