ISLAMABAD: Even though the government appears to be slowing down on-going power projects, it will need to increase generation capacity by 35-40%, from around 34,501 MW to 57,204 MW by 2030.

According to the Indicative Generating Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP), 2030, prepared by the National Transmission and Dispatch Company, the Compound Annualized Growth Rate (ACGR) of 3.3% to 4.6% is required.

The net present value (NPV) of investments required to manage the construction and operation of production infrastructure by 2030 has been estimated to be between $ 31.6 billion and $ 32.2 billion. NPV investment requirements include capital expenditure (CAPEX) and operational expenditure (OPEX), but do not include existing capacity payments or CAPEX of committed factories.

The estimates cover all of Pakistan with the exception of K-Electric whose import of electricity from the national grid was taken at 2050 MW until 2022. In all low to high demand estimates, around 6 450 MW of existing plants are expected to be phased out by 2030 in any case.

“The results of the reference scenario show that to meet a demand of 34,377 MW by 2030, a production capacity of 53,315 MW is proposed, which includes the use of existing production facilities, taking into account committed power plants and the optimization of candidate plants, ”said IGCEP. 2030. The long-term and least costly production expansion plan for the NTDC system for the period 2021-30 was developed using production planning software – PLEXOS.

To meet demand by 2030, the share of variable renewable energy resources (VRE) has been estimated at 1,964 MW for solar, 3,795 MW for wind and 749 MW for bagasse plants. Quotes are finalized at the lowest cost.

Besides the inclusion of ERVs, some of the main features of the model include minimal dependence on imported fuels, namely imported coal, technologies based on regasified liquid natural gas (RLNG) and residual fuel oil (RFO) and an increased share. local coal hydroelectricity. The inclusion of ERVs, hydropower and coal from Thar is expected to help lower the basket price of the entire system.

The self-sufficiency ratio of primary energy, i.e. the contribution of energy production by local energy sources, currently stands at 58.9 pc while, according to the scenario of Basically, the indigenization of energy production should reach 90.2 pc by 2030 to correspond to greater energy security for the country.

In addition to the base case, two other scenarios are developed to help decision makers make an informed decision which include low and high demand scenarios.

In the highest case, the demand is expected to be 57,204 MW to be met by the existing capacity of 28,051 MW, 22,182 MW of committed power plants and 6,972 MW of candidate projects.

Likewise, IGCEP-30 also addresses the impact of carbon emissions due to the addition of power generation in the future. The country’s carbon emissions from power generation represent 0.353 kg-CO2 / kWh in 2021 and this indicator will decrease to 0.202 kg-CO2 / kWh by 2030, which is even less than the average of member countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.

The results of the base case simulation suggest that over the next five years, the contribution of gas-fired power plants to the production mix (GWh) will decrease from 12pc currently to only 5pc. Likewise, with the installation of new committed local coal-based power plants in Thar, over the next 5 years, the share of local coal in the production mix will increase to 15%.

RLNG-based plants, although installed and available, should have a decreasing share in the energy mix from 2021 to 2030, that is to say from 19pc to 1pc in 2025, then finally drop to almost zero pc in 2030. A similar trend is observed for imports. coal-fired power plants whose contribution to the overall production mix goes from 22pc in 2021 to only 10pc in 2030.

In addition, the share of solar and wind power in the overall energy mix would increase from around 3% in 2021 to 10% in 2030. The overall production capacity of the system would increase from 34,100 MW in 2021 to 53,315 MW in 2030. Significant increase in capacity is observed in hydroelectric, solar and wind power plants. New solar and wind power plants are optimized by PLEXOS being a cheaper energy source.

Posted in Dawn, le 4 June 2021